UK House Prices: Latest Figures from Halifax Show Futility of Keeping Track

Halifax has released the April figures from their house price index, I am reporting on it only because I feel I must. It's all getting a bit much-of-a-much-ness for me now, we might as well stop bothering with keeping track of UK house prices until people start buying in greater numbers, but as long as they keep releasing figures I'll keep issuing my opinions on them.

According to Halifax, UK house prices fell by an average 1.7% in April, down from 1.9% in March and putting the average price of a UK home at £154,716.

The Halifax index has also found the annual rate of house price decline to be accelerating. This shows just how useless these indices are in the current market: Halifax said the decline was slowing in their figures for March released last month, and this was backed-up by the Land-Registry's figures for March released last week, and now according to Halifax it is accelerating again -- it doesn't make sense.

If we think about it, the natural progression is for the decline of house prices to slow. If we look at the historical indices, again of my favourites the nationwide -- because they go right back to 1952 in a simple-to-understand format -- it shows that, although prices grew in fits and starts from 1996 onwards, the real acceleration into the last boom began in 2001.

Prices have already fallen back to their 2004 level, it is logical the decline will start to slow when prices fall back on themselves; when they reach the levels they were at in 2001. This will take the affordability index back to 69% (mortgage repayments 69% of first time buyers take home pay), and prices will continue to fall, gradually slowing. I still think another 15% is a reasonable forecast.