Turkey and the EU: The Boot is on the Other Foot Now

Turkey no longer needs to become a full member of the EU, it is a standalone nation negotiating beneficial partnerships with whatever countries it sees fit. In fact, it is making the most of its independence from Europe, to seek economically beneficial ties with those in the east, including Russia.

Just how little Turkey needs the EU was displayed last week when global financial authorities Fitch and JP Morgan Chase and Co both upgraded the status of Turkey in their international ratings systems. JP Morgan upgraded Turkish stocks from Nutral to Overweight, and Fitch upgraded the long-term rating of the Turkish currency by 2 points from BB- to BB+, both on the grounds that Turkey is going to grow more strongly next year than many other developing nations, and neither mentioning the possibility of EU membership as part of Turkey's continued economic success.

In fact, as the world, and in particular Europe becomes more and more energy and resources hungry and seeks reliable sources in avoiding Russia's ability to hold its neighbours to ransom, the EU now needs Turkey more than the opposite is true, and will continue to become more and more true as time progresses.

Many of you will have heard of the proposed Nabucco gas pipeline scheme, to run from the Caspian Sea to Europe. Turkey's cooperation is vital if there is to be any chance of the pipeline being connected to Europe.

Just how the shoe has changed foot on the EU and Turkey's relationship will become clear again this week, as the EU leaders meet for a big summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Turkey has ignored the EU over opening its ports and airports to Cypriots, because it says (basically) that the EU has been discriminatory against Turkish Cypriots in the affair.

The EU has already sanctioned Turkey, but analysts believe that further sanctions are unlikely, and this is mainly because Turkey is becoming a "vital energy partner", although the official story is that the EU doesn't want to damage the newly normalising relations between Turkey and its neighbours, like Armenia.

Whether or not Turkey needs the International Monetary Fund remains to be seen. Some analysts said that Turkey needed IMF funding in order to be able to spend sufficiently on expanding tourism. However, it was revealed last month that tourism to Turkey has continued to grow this year.

Julian Walker, of Turkish property agent Spot Blue believes that any deal, if signed with the IMF will not be signed until next year now.

"[Prime Minister] Erdogan doesn't want to sign the new deal with the IMF unless it is absolutely necessary because it will damage his growing influence as a growing regional power. Whether it is really necessary or not will not become clear until all the economic data has been gathered, collated and crunched, which will take us 2 or 3 months into next year at least," he said.

Spot Blue is one of the UK's largest Turkish property agents, with property for sale in Turkey priced from £25,000.

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