IMF Readjusts Albania Economic Forecast - More Educated Guess-Work

The International Monetary Fund has once again adjusted its forecast for economic growth in Albania this year, now forecasting growth of only 0.4% for this year. Just last month the IMF publicly stated that they anticipated at least 1% growth for the Albanian economy this year.

In an economic climate such as we face now, forecast is just a fancier way of saying educated guess, even by major bodies like the IMF.

There is a trend though; when it comes to economic growth in Eastern European countries and that is: down down down down. The IMF and European Economic Community had originally forecast growth for the Bulgarian economy this year, then they forecast less growth, and now they forecast a deep and prolonged recession, but again it is still only an educated guess.

The current recession is so international -- cash around the world is frozen; nobody is spending -- that it is difficult to see where a recovery is going to come from. But there will be a recovery, there always is.

With this in mind I see the current economic climate as on a pivot, waiting for one crucial event, announcement or happening to kick-start a chain of events that will bring recovery, probably either in the US, UK or Asia to begin with, and begin to spread around the world.