Halifax Say Prices up 1% in 2009 + Jan Prize for Stating the Obvious

From 2010 forward Write About Property will be publishing a monthly award for stating the obvious in the industry or national press. The plan was to wait and give the award at the end of every month, but no one is going to beat this one:

in the Guardian article that told us house prices ended the year 1.1% higher than they started it according to the Halifax index. This is much lower than the rise reported by Nationwide, but it is based on a 3 month-3month period, when you look at Halifax's December to December figure they have a rise of 5.6%.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said on his forecast of a 5% fall in UK house prices for 2010:

"Much will clearly depend on whether the economy can develop [its] recovery after the highly probable return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, how much further unemployment rises, how much earnings rise, how quickly and to what extent credit conditions ease, and how many properties come on to the market over the coming months."

Well duh... Though there are other indeterminate factors that could influence the market in 2010, like the impending general election, the uncertainty over the taxation changes, and how banks circumvent the windfall tax, but apart from those Archer has pretty much laid out every factor that will influence the growth, positive or negative, in UK house prices.

It's like saying how much the grass will grow will depend on whether the seeds were planted correctly, how much rainfall there is and how much sunlight there is. Other than that I agree with his forecast. I have previously forecast a similar decline.

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