Dubai Airport Reports Increasing Traffic, but are More People Coming or Going?

Traffic through Dubai international a was up 6/7% on last year according to recent reports. This is compared to a fall of 7% internationally. However, the reports do not tell us whether people flying out of Dubai through the airport were counted in the result.

Since the downturn really struck Dubai, thousands of Britons and other foreign residents have been forced to flee the emirate for fear of tough punishments for defaulted loans; under the Islamic law system people are punished severely, including possible jail-time for failing to repay credit.

It is hard to say exactly what Dubai tourism is like at the moment; the figures for 2009, when they are released will be a shock to me whatever they show, because I really am absolutely at a loss to say. I am negative on the Dubai property market and the economy until at least the 3rd quarter of 2011, and that makes it easy for me to be negative on the entire country (term used loosely).

That said: Dubai has some of the most incredible resort hotels in the world; Palm Jumeirah the man-made island masterpiece is absolutely breathtaking, and captured the hearts and imaginations of tourists throughout 2008.

Then again: many of the proposed new resorts are now mothballed and no one wants to holiday with views of a construction site's idle cranes and machinery, or worse, an empty or half-finished tower.

So, though this is the second announcement that I know of reporting increasing traffic through Dubai's airport, I have seen nothing to suggest that this is because of increasing tourism figures. This would seem to indicate that tourism hasn't been rising, as even if not brought to light in their own news, these articles on rising air traffic present the perfect opportunity to mention it.

However, if it turns out that tourism has risen in 2009, or even not fallen as much, it will be a massive boost for the Dubai property market. Developers and potential buyers will see that there is a market to target, which will undoubtedly bring them in to restart some of the postponed developments, which will really restart the market.

If I am right and tourism has fallen in 2009, then I revert to my original forecast: Dubai property prices will be falling until at least the latter part of 2011, at which point they will be lucky to see any real growth before 2014/15 -- read all about it in this article.

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