Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania and Poland to Avoid Recession

The European Commission has said that it expects Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania to avoid recession in 2009 and 2010, but seriously downgraded the growth expected for the EU newcomers.

Poland's economic growth is now expected to be 2.0 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year. The EC had previously forecast growth of over 3 percent this year, and over 4% next year.

The EC now forecasts 1.7 percent economic growth in Czech Republic this year and 2.3 percent next year, down from their previous forecast of 3.6 and 3.9 percent respectively.

However, unlike Poland the Czech Republic is expected to maintain a handle on its budget deficit, which is expected to stay below the 3.0 percent cap necessary for adoption of the Euro by at least .5% this year and next; Poland's budget deficit is expected to climb to 3.6% this year, and drop to 3.5% in 2010. Poland wants to adopt the Euro by 2012, and Czech Republic by 2013.

The EC growth forecasts are the same for Bulgaria and Romania: 1.8 percent this year, and 2.5 percent next year. However, Bulgaria will also keep a handle on its budget deficit, while Romania's is expected to spiral, to well above 7% this year, falling slightly in 2010.

Many of the nations recently accepted into the EU have become reliant on heavy assistance from the International Monetary Fund to keep them afloat in 2009, including among the worst affected: Latvia and Lithuania.

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