An Exciting Day for UK House Price Commentators

This is an interesting day (and exciting if you're sad like me) for the UK housing market, with two of the biggest measure of UK house prices releasing the latest figures on the same day. Nationwide have gotten in first to the punch, and their figures for and up to April can already be viewed online, Land Registry figures for and up to March will be posted later today.

I am happy to go on record and say that I predict another fall in the findings of the land registry index of English and Welsh house prices. I would say 2 - 2.5% in monthly falls, which will mean little change in the rate of annual decline.

Last month Nationwide reported the first rise in UK house prices for almost a year, with a monthly rise of 0.9% for March. This was almost immediately dismissed as a statistical anomaly, especially when it was followed soon after by the Halifax index showing a 1.9% drop in prices in the same month with a slowing rate of annual descent, and the Communities and Local Government figures which showed the annual rate of decline had increased .

Nationwide has an excellent house price index dating back to the 50s. The latest release from the index shows a 0.4% drop in UK house prices for the month of April, and the annual rate of decline slowing from 15.7% to 15.0%. The biggest shocker, is that the index's headlines show the average price of a UK house has risen in that month: from £150,946 in March to £151,861.

Fionnuala Earley agreed with my opinions in her statement, that the lack of mortgage credit is not the only problem the housing market faces.

"The chancellor announced several measures aimed at boosting the housing market in his Budget. The scheme for government guarantees for new, high-quality residential mortgage backed securities are welcome and may help to boost the amount of mortgage credit available. However, since the availability of credit is only part of the reason why the housing market is in the doldrums it is unlikely to lead to a swift turnaround in its fortunes. Lenders have already indicated that the availability of credit is less of an issue than it has been, but at the same time expect that the demand for secured lending will fall further. Given the weakness of the economy and the expected further increase in unemployment this comes as no surprise," she said.

It will certainly be interesting to see what the Land Registry index recorded for March, to see just how out of step the two indices have gotten.The last release of Land Registry figures last month showed its findings from February. The main results are still live on the homepage:

• Average price of a house in England and Wales: £153,862
• Monthly change: -2/0%
• Annual change: -16.5%

Like I said I am eagerly awaiting today's release, particularly for the detailed breakdown of regional variations.